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That's not to say that we
can pretend this virus hates us; viruses don't have brains,
so we can't make the mistake of blaming it as though it was
a sentient entity. Co V-2, says Giordano, "Doesn't care
about us, our age, gender, nationality, personal
preferences." A virus like this just is.
Epidemics, however, "are
mathematical emergencies first and foremost" and contagion
is a "chain reaction" that grows exponentially, and with
speed. Scientists use the symbol
R0 (pronounced
R-naught) to indicate a level of contagion; to put Co V-2 in
perspective, its R0 is 2.5. Measles has a R0
of 15. The Spanish flu's R0 was 2.1. The spread is
halted when R0 is at 1. Social isolation "equals
dragging down the R0 value" and if we stop isolating
too soon, there is a "high likelihood" that the virus will
return.
That's hard to do; by
nature, we hate altering our behavior and self-isolation is
a big alteration but, says Giordano, we have two choices
here: we either find a vaccine or we have patience. We are
more connected than we realize, we move around too much, and
"we know that the epidemic changes if we change." And
speaking of that, he says we should take a hard look at
climate change because he blames a lot of this virus on "our
aggressive behavior toward the environment..."
If we're not careful,
"what is happening with Covid-19 will keep happening more
often."
Even as you read this
review, says author Paolo Giordano, "the situation" is
different than it was even yesterday. Some understanding of
how we've gotten here is key to enduring and surviving this
pandemic, and How Contagion Works helps.
It also helps that you
don't need a PhD to understand what's inside this skinny
book: filled with examples and stories, the science inside
is broken down in steps that are graspable for anyone with
even the slightest grasp of this virus. Giordano also
addresses the myths and rumors of Covid-19, and he's not
afraid to upset his readers with truth.
That means that there may
be parts of this book that you might not like. There are
also parts that'll give you hope and blow your mind, too,
and since well-informed is well-armed, read it. How
Contagion Works is a book to lock down.
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